HomeSports2026 men's NCAA hockey tournament Bubble Watch

2026 men’s NCAA hockey tournament Bubble Watch


With conference tournaments underway and selection day for the men’s NCAA hockey tournament about two weeks away, we look at the contenders for the field of 16, from teams on the bubble to those playing for No. 1 seeds.

Six automatic bids to the NCAA tournament will be awarded to the winners of the six conference tournaments, with championship games scheduled for March 20 and March 21. Ten more teams will earn at-large spots determined by the NPI formula, which replaces the PairWise rankings this season. Every game can impact the NPI rankings, which factor in strength of schedule, home/road splits and overtime results.

Once the NCAA field is set, the four regional brackets will be announced March 22. Regional games will be played March 26-29; the sites are Albany, New York; Loveland, Colorado; Sioux Falls, South Dakota, and Worcester, Massachusetts. The Frozen Four will be held April 9 and April 11 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Every game of the NCAA tournament, and the selection show, will be available on ESPN networks and the ESPN App.

Here’s a look at the NCAA contenders, listed with their NPI rankings, key results and remaining schedules.

NPI rankings, team records through games of March 14.


Frozen Four or bust

The top two teams in the top two conferences — North Dakota and Western Michigan in the NCHC and Michigan State and Michigan in the Big Ten — have been at or near the top of the rankings all season. Despite a few hiccups along the way, they continue to be the teams to beat.

No. 1 Michigan

Record: 28-7-1, 19-6-1 Big Ten

Key results: Michigan split two games with Minnesota to close its regular-season schedule and move past Michigan State into the No. 1 spot in the NPI rankings. The conference tournaments will determine if the Wolverines, Spartans or Fighting Hawks are the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA field.

Remaining schedule: Big Ten tournament — Final vs. Ohio State on Saturday

No. 2 North Dakota

Record: 27-9-1, 19-7-1 NCHC

Key results: NoDak split two games against Western Michigan to secure the top seed in the NCHC tournament and dispatched Omaha in the quarterfinals before losing to Minnesota Duluth in the semis.

Remaining schedule: TBD

No. 3 Michigan State

Record: 25-8-2, 16-7-2 Big Ten

Key results: The Spartans lost in overtime to Ohio State in the Big Ten semifinals, falling to 0-2-1 in their last three games against the Buckeyes. They clinched the Big Ten regular-season title with a win over Minnesota and before their struggles with Ohio State had won nine of their previous 10 games.

Remaining schedule: TBD

No. 4 Western Michigan

Record: 26-10-1, 18-8-1 NCHC

Key results: The defending national champs took care of business in sweeping Colorado College in the NCHC quarters before falling to Denver in OT in the semis. They are 16-4-1 since Christmas, including wins over Boston College and Wisconsin in the Kwik Trip Holiday Face-Off and a two-game sweep at Denver.

Remaining schedule: TBD


Rock-solid

The teams in this tier will be playing the last weekend of March, although there’s still a lot of fluidity in terms of NCAA seeding.

No. 5 Denver

Record: 24-11-3, 20-6-1 NCHC

Key results: Denver is unbeaten in its past 12 games (11-0-1), emerging as the hottest team in the country, which is nothing new for the Pioneers in March. They have rebounded well after opening January with a 1-5-1 stretch against Maine, Western Michigan and North Dakota.

Remaining schedule: NCHC tournament — Final vs. Minnesota Duluth on Saturday

No. 6 Minnesota Duluth

Record: 23-13-1, 14-12-1 NCHC

Key results: The Bulldogs posted their third win of the season over North Dakota in the conference semis, so they can play with anyone. They also have a win over Western Michigan on their résumé.

Remaining schedule: NCHC tournament — Final vs. Denver on Saturday

No. 7 Providence

Record: 23-10-2, 18-6-1 Hockey East

Key results: Entering the postseason, the Friars were the class of Hockey East, winning the first regular-season title in program history and 14 of their last 16 games. They lost in the quarterfinals to No. 8 seed Merrimack, but remain in line for a 2-seed in the NCAAs.

Remaining schedule: TBD

No. 8 Dartmouth

Record: 21-7-4, 15-5-4 ECAC

Key results: Dartmouth bumped up into this category after a 7-4 victory over Quinnipiac on Feb. 27, then swept Colgate in the ECAC quarters. The Big Green have been sitting pretty since an 11-0 start to the season.

Remaining schedule: ECAC tournament — Semifinal vs. Clarkson on Friday

No. 9 Cornell

Record: 22-9-1, 17-7-1 ECAC

Key results: The Big Red essentially locked up an NCAA berth with wins over St. Lawrence and Clarkson, which came on the heels of a 6-1 rout at Quinnipiac on Feb. 20. Cornell then rallied to beat Harvard in the ECAC quarterfinals after losing Game 1.

Remaining schedule: ECAC tournament — Semifinal vs. Princeton on Friday

No. 10 Penn State

Record: 21-12-2, 13-10-2 Big Ten

Key results: Penn State ended the regular season headed in the wrong direction, falling six spots in the NPI after being swept at home by Wisconsin (combined score: 12-5). The Nittany Lions beat Minnesota 6-2 in the Big Ten quarterfinals before losing to Michigan in the semis.

Remaining schedule: TBD

No. 11 Quinnipiac

Record: 26-9-3, 17-6-1 ECAC

Key results: The Bobcats were the top seed in the ECAC but got swept out of the quarterfinals with a pair of losses to Clarkson. They also showed some cracks the last two weekends of the regular season, suffering a 7-4 loss at Dartmouth and a 6-1 defeat to Cornell.

Remaining schedule: TBD


In the field — for now

The cutline in the NPI rankings for making the NCAA field for our purposes is at No. 15, as the Atlantic champ will earn an automatic bid and claim the 16th seed. But life for these teams is made much more tense with potential bid thieves lurking in the ECAC (Princeton or Clarkson), Hockey East (Merrimack or Boston College) and the Big Ten (Ohio State). For now, these teams are on the right side of the bubble, but their positions are far from secure and the margins are extremely tight.

No. 12 Wisconsin

Record: 21-12-2, 14-11-0 Big Ten

Key results: Although the Badgers got drubbed by Ohio State in the Big Ten quarterfinals, they posted a huge two-game sweep at Penn State to close the regular season. Combine that with a 4-1 win over Michigan on Feb. 20 — and earlier wins over Michigan and Michigan State as part of a 15-3-2 start — and Wisconsin is still in good shape barring a rash of bid stealers.

Remaining schedule: TBD

No. 13 UMass

Record: 22-12-1, 15-9-1 Hockey East

Key results: UMass’ last-season surge continued with a quarterfinal win over Northeastern as the No. 2 seed in Hockey East. The Minutemen began 2026 in last place in the conference and at No. 39 in NPI, but now have at-large hopes if they don’t win the Hockey East tournament. However, a semifinal win over Merrimack is critical.

Remaining schedule: Hockey East tournament — Semifinal vs. Merrimack on Friday

No. 14 St. Thomas

Record: 21-11-5, 18-7-4 CCHA

Key results: St. Thomas is listed here based on its NPI ranking, but most likely needs to win the CCHA to make the NCAA field. A key semifinal win over Augustana on the heels of a two-game sweep of Lake Superior State in the CCHA quarters put St. Thomas back on track after going 2-4-2 in its last eight regular-season games.

Remaining schedule: CCHA tournament — Final vs. Minnesota State on Saturday

No. 15 UConn

Record: 19-11-5, 12-9-3 Hockey East

Key results: UConn closed the regular season 1-4-2 in its last seven games, but posted a key quarterfinal win over Boston University to stay on the right side of the bubble. But the Huskies seem to need a semifinal win over BC to keep any at-large hopes alive.

Remaining schedule: Hockey East tournament — Semifinal vs. Boston College on Friday

Bentley/Atlantic champ

Record: 21-11-5, 19-6-4 Atlantic; No. 25 in NPI

Key results: The 16th spot in the NCAA field most likely will be filled by the Atlantic Hockey champion. We’ll keep Bentley in this slot at the No. 1 seed for the conference tournament, but it will be either the Falcons or Sacred Heart, the No. 2 seed in the Atlantic, that moves on.

Remaining schedule: Atlantic tournament — Final vs. Sacred Heart on Saturday


Hanging by a thread

The at-large drama has centered on the CCHA and Hockey East. At-large hopes aren’t great for anyone here, particularly with the potential for lost bids, but there may be a glimmer of hope.

Augustana

Record: 22-12-4, 16-10-4 CCHA; No. 16 in NPI

Key results: The Vikings traded places with St. Thomas after falling to the Tommies in the CCHA semifinals, leaving them on the outs and needing several results to go their way — namely no bid stealers, and UMass and UConn both losing in the Hockey East semifinals. But Augustana is still in the at-large picture.

Remaining schedule: TBD

Minnesota State

Record: 21-10-7, 17-8-5 CCHA; No. 17 in NPI

Key results: The Mustangs’ at-large hopes took a major hit with a bad quarterfinals loss to Ferris State. Minnesota State rallied to win Game 3 and advance, then beat Michigan Tech in the semis but it’s CCHA title or bust in terms of the NCAA tourney.

Remaining schedule: CCHA tournament — Final vs. St. Thomas on Saturday

Boston College

Record: 21-14-1, 15-11-0 Hockey East; No. 18 in NPI

Key results: BC closed the regular season with four straight losses before beating Maine in the Hockey East quarterfinals. But it seems the Eagles need to win the conference tournament to extend their season.

Remaining schedule: Hockey East tournament — Semifinal vs. UConn on Friday



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