Billionaire Tom Steyer is the frontrunner in the California gubernatorial campaign following the first debate since Democratic Representative Eric Swalwell exited the contest, according to odds from prediction market Polymarket.
The televised debate among the six leading candidates for California governor on Wednesday came after Swalwell’s departure created a wide-open race for the heavily Democratic state’s highest office, with more than 50 names on the ballot. Ballots will go out to voters from May 4 ahead of the June 2 primary.
Wednesday’s debate brought together the two leading Republicans in the race, conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, and four Democrats. As well as Steyer, they were U.S. Representative Katie Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former Biden administration Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra.
It came two weeks after Swalwell, a top contender, suspended his gubernatorial campaign following sexual assault allegations that he denies.
Why It Matters
The candidates all appeared on the same stage for the debate because California puts all candidates on the same ballot regardless of party, and the two with the most votes advance to the November general election.
Democrats have feared their crowded field of candidates could split the party’s vote and lead to two Republicans advancing in the race, shutting them out of November’s general election to replace outgoing Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, a result that would be a historic calamity for Democrats. Newsom has not yet endorsed a candidate in the race.
What To Know
Polymarket odds favor Steyer to win the race at 36 percent, followed by Becerra at 31 percent and Mahan at 9 percent.
Porter and Hilton were both favored to win at 6 percent, followed by Bianco at 5 percent.
It comes after the California Democratic Party warned that polling conducted after Swalwell’s exit from the race showed the possibility that Hilton and Bianco could advance.
“Two Republicans still lead, with Democrats trailing closely behind–a reminder that the risk of Democrats being locked out of the General Election, while low, is real,” the party said on X on Monday alongside the polling results. “Chair Rusty Hicks continues to call on every candidate to honestly assess their path to win.”
Another Democrat, Betty Yee, a former state controller, suspended her campaign on Monday.
Wednesday’s 90-minute debate, hosted by Nexstar, saw the candidates field questions on housing and wildfire insurance, social media and gas taxes, while bickering over professional experience, individual wealth and the direction of the nation’s most populous state.
Democrats made clear they would fight President Donald Trump in a state known as the home of the so-called Trump resistance, while Republicans said ruling Democrats are to blame for the state’s woes, such as homelessness and crime.
Steyer’s wealth and previous business dealings came up repeatedly in the debate.
“The only housing Tom Steyer’s built has been private prisons and ICE detention centers,” Mahan said, echoing criticism that Steyer, a hedge fund founder turned liberal activist, invested in private prisons that today house people picked up in federal immigration raids.
Steyer responded that he and his wife have financed thousands of low-income housing units.
Steyer has been vastly outspending his rivals in advertising and was asked about being the only billionaire in the race. He noted major corporations including utility companies are spending millions against him.
“I’m the billionaire who wants to tax other billionaires,” he added. “I’m the billionaire who’s taking on the electric monopoly and trying to break up their power. I’m the billionaire who wants to tax the oil companies and make polluters pay.”
Hilton, who has been endorsed by Trump, and Bianco both blamed California’s one-sided politics for the state’s troubles.
“All the Democrats here are part of this system that obviously isn’t working,” Hilton said, while discussing the state’s high tax rates.
What Happens Next
Mail ballots will go to voters starting May 4, in advance of the June 2 primary election.
CNN will host the next gubernatorial debate on May 5.