Former State Controller Betty Yee, a Democrat suspended her bid for California governor this week, narrowing an already volatile primary field as betting markets show climate activist Tom Steyer and former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra leading the race.
As the June 2 primary nears, Democrats worry that a splintered field could open the door to a Republican-heavy general election.
Remaining Democratic candidates now face increased pressure to consolidate support before ballots reach voters in early May.
Why It Matters
California’s top-two primary system means only the two highest vote-getters advance, regardless of party, raising fears that vote-splitting among Democrats could lock them out of November—even as Democratic voters in the state outnumber Republicans by nearly two to one, according to the Los Angeles Times.
With multiple Democratic exits in April, including former frontrunner ex-California Representative Eric Swalwell, party leaders and traders alike are watching closely for signs of consolidation—and momentum.
Another Democrat Drops Out of a Crowded Race
Yee announced Monday that she was suspending her campaign, just over a week after Swalwell exited the race amid sexual misconduct allegations that he denies.
Yee cited a lack of fundraising, limited polling traction and the realities of campaigning in some of the nation’s most expensive media markets as key reasons for stepping aside.
“It was becoming clear that the donors were not going to be there. Even some of my former supporters just felt like they needed to move on,” Yee told an online news conference about her decision, The Associated Press reported.
Her departure has little direct impact on polling, with Yee stuck near the bottom of the field.
How Prediction Markets View the Race
Prediction markets like Polymarket allow users to trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, such as election winners.
Prices fluctuate based on trader sentiment, news events and available data, creating a constantly updated snapshot of perceived odds.
At the time of writing, Polymarket traders showed billionaire Tom Steyer and Xavier Becerra effectively tied, with each at roughly a 36 percent implied chance of winning the gubernatorial race.
A second tier of candidates lags well back, with former representative Katie Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and Republican Steve Hilton each hovering around 6 percent, followed by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at roughly 4 percent.
Trading volume on the market has exceeded $11.5 million, reflecting unusually high engagement for a state-level contest.
Separate data from U.S.-regulated prediction market Kalshi paints a similar picture, but with former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra slightly ahead at around 41 percent, compared with Tom Steyer at roughly 38 percent.