The second round of the madness is here! After two thrilling days of upsets, buzzer-beaters and star performances, the second round gets going Saturday with 16 teams vying to make it to the Sweet 16.
Will Duke turn things around after its tough start against Siena? Could VCU continue its Cinderella run? Before the games tip off, our ESPN college basketball analysts have you covered with a key to winning the game for every team.
Make sure to come back as the games get underway for live updates from the second round.
12:10 p.m., CBS
How Michigan can advance to the Sweet 16: The Wolverines can advance if they use their size on offense and subdue a unique Saint Louis offense. Michigan had early struggles as Kenny Blakeney’s Howard team focused on Yaxel Lendeborg (nine points) and used a zone to keep the Wolverines out of the lane. It didn’t work for the whole game because Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. — who had 40 points combined — played over the top of it while continuing to score from the perimeter to seal the win. Saint Louis doesn’t have the size to defend Michigan at any position. On offense, the Billikens could be forced to camp out at the 3-point line because the Wolverines won’t give them a lot of room to operate in the paint. If Michigan hits its 3s, dominates inside and defends a versatile Saint Louis offense, the Wolverines should advance to the Sweet 16. — Myron Medcalf
How Saint Louis can advance to the Sweet 16: Saint Louis is an efficient offensive operation, shooting around 59% inside the arc and around 40% from 3. That’s what the Billikens will need to get a win over a Michigan team with just three losses this season. They’ll have to be good on the perimeter and around the rim as they were against Georgia with 66 points in the paint. But how? They’ll have to attack Michigan’s big men, especially Aday Mara, on ball screens, which is what Duke did down the stretch of its win over Michigan this season. Saint Louis has six players who have made at least 37% of their 3-point attempts this season. The Billikens can advance if they exhaust Michigan’s frontcourt with an inside-outside game that keeps the Wolverines guessing and plays their best defense of the season to protect the rim against one of America’s biggest frontcourts. Easier said than done. — Medcalf
2:45 p.m., CBS
How Michigan State can advance to the Sweet 16: Michigan State’s biggest edge against North Dakota State was its dominant frontcourt, with Carson Cooper, Jaxon Kohler, Coen Carr and Cam Ward combining for 62 points and 24 rebounds. That will also be where the Spartans will need to win against Louisville. Despite having plenty of size and depth up front, the Cardinals struggled on the defensive glass against South Florida, and Michigan State is one of the top-10 offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Spartans should be able to have success in that area against the Cardinals. Jeremy Fears Jr. will be the key — he didn’t score the ball well against North Dakota State and turned it over a season-high four times, but he’ll be able to get downhill and put pressure on Louisville. — Jeff Borzello
How Louisville can advance to the Sweet 16: Despite leading South Florida by 23 points before a late surge by the Bulls made the final margin much closer, Louisville has to clean up plenty in order to beat Michigan State. South Florida grabbed 18 offensive rebounds — 37.5% of its misses — and Louisville will have a harder time against Michigan State, one of the most dominant offensive rebounding teams in the country. The key on the offensive end, as it always is for Louisville, will be making 3s. The Cardinals rank in the top five nationally in 3-point attempt rate and made 13 against South Florida. Michigan State was in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten in 3-point defense and allowed an average of 11.1 3-pointers in its losses this season. The X factor could be the absence of Mikel Brown Jr., who has been ruled out again with a lingering back injury, though Louisville has figured out how to win without him over the past five games. — Borzello
5:15 p.m., CBS
How Duke can advance to the Sweet 16: Well, it would help if they showed up like the team that dominated in the second half against Siena — and not the version that played in the first half, when it was down by double digits. Duke’s offensive rhythm was clearly disrupted without Caleb Foster, its best 3-point shooter (40.2%), and the Blue Devils’ defense was weaker than expected with Patrick Ngongba II out due to injury, too. In the second half, however, the Blue Devils turned to a zone and played with a different defensive intensity. They’ll advance if they have the same mojo against TCU. Isaiah Evans was a headache for Siena on fast breaks and off the dribble after halftime; Duke has to do more to put him in a position to impact the game. Cameron Boozer was 13-for-14 from the free throw line. Good defense, Evans making plays and Boozer being Boozer are the keys to Duke moving on. — Medcalf
How TCU can advance to the Sweet 16: Siena became the first 16-seed to hold a double-digit halftime lead over a 1-seed in NCAA tournament history, per ESPN Research, because of its early dominance in the paint. Francis Folefac, a 6-foot-7 forward, was the anchor of a Saints squad that scored 22 points in the paint in the first half against the Blue Devils. That has to be the blueprint for TCU, too. The Blue Devils were vulnerable inside without Patrick Ngongba II, their best defensive player who may not be available for the second round. That’s how the Horned Frogs can win, attacking inside and defending the rim against Boozer & Co. They will also need 3s to fall again (39% against Ohio State), which only happened on occasion during the season when they were 15th out of 16 teams in the Big 12 in 3-point shooting. — Medcalf
6:10 p.m., TNT
How Houston can advance to the Sweet 16: Houston, on paper, is built to withstand Texas A&M’s pressing, up-tempo style. The Cougars have an elite three-guard trio in Kingston Flemings, Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp, who don’t turn the ball over and are effective at getting the game to be played at Kelvin Sampson’s preferred tempo. They also can force their own fair share of turnovers, and A&M has had some issues against teams with intense on-ball pressure. Where Houston can really have an edge is on the offensive glass. The Cougars are annually one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, and while this year’s group isn’t quite as elite as previous versions, they’re still in the top 30 nationally in offensive rebounding rate and second-chance points per game. A&M, meanwhile, was one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the SEC. — Borzello
How Texas A&M can advance to the Sweet 16: It’s all about Bucky Ball and how effective it can be against Houston and one of the best backcourts in the country. A&M wants to play fast, it wants to force turnovers and it wants to make teams uncomfortable. Houston takes care of the ball, ranking seventh in the country in turnover percentage — and the Cougars are even better in Big 12 play. A&M forces turnovers on 18.6% of its defensive possessions; Houston has turned it over that frequently just five times all season. Can A&M win the pace battle? The Aggies average more than 70 possessions per game, ranking in the top 40 nationally. Meanwhile, the Cougars play just over 63 possessions per game, ranking No. 352 nationally. This will be a true contrast of styles, but the fact that A&M just beat another grind-it-out team in Saint Mary’s should give the Aggies optimism. — Borzello
7:10 p.m., truTV/TBS
How Gonzaga can advance to the Sweet 16: Gonzaga gets to avoid facing AJ Dybantsa in the second round, but now the Zags have to play a Texas team with momentum — and one with size that could potentially make life difficult for Mark Few’s club. What should determine the outcome will be the paint battle and free throw margin. Gonzaga leads the nation in paint points per game, scoring nearly 45, while shooting nearly 59% inside the arc. But the Zags outscored Kennesaw State by only four points in the paint Thursday. Graham Ike needs to be his usual dominant self, and it will be helpful to get Matas Vokietaitis in foul trouble. Vokietaitis averages 5.3 fouls per 40 and committed at least four fouls in seven straight games entering Thursday. On the flip side, Ike will have to slow the former Florida Atlantic transfer; Vokietaitis is averaging 17.6 points over his past 11 games and had 23 points and 16 boards against BYU. — Borzello
How Texas can advance to the Sweet 16: Texas, after losing five of six games entering the NCAA tournament, has picked up back-to-back wins over NC State and BYU — and it will need to continue defending at a high level to have a chance against Gonzaga. The Longhorns’ defensive deficiencies have not exactly been a secret; Sean Miller has talked about it at length, bemoaning their inability to guard opponents without fouling. But against NC State, they held the Wolfpack to 0.98 points per possession — their first time limiting an opponent to fewer than one point per possession since Jan. 14. BYU scored 1.06 points per possession against Texas, but that’s well below the Cougars’ season average, and they have potential No. 1 NBA draft pick AJ Dybantsa. Fortunately for Miller, Gonzaga’s offense is not predicated on getting to the free throw line. The Zags score more paint points per game than any team in the country, so Saturday’s game will be key for Matas Vokietaitis to protect the rim and stifle All-American Graham Ike. — Borzello
7:50 p.m., CBS
How Illinois can advance to the Sweet 16: Illinois, which owns the No. 1 offense in America, can advance with the same overwhelming offensive attack it has relied on in wins over Texas Tech, Tennessee and Purdue. The Fighting Illini scored 40 points in the first half against Penn before adding 65 in the second half at a rate of 197 points per 100 possessions. For comparison: The Denver Nuggets have the NBA’s best offense of the season at 120 points per 100 possessions. That’s how good Illinois is right now. Brad Underwood’s team can advance with another overwhelming offensive effort. On Thursday, the Illini turned to David Mirkovic (29 points, 17 rebounds) to keep their national title hopes alive. It’s a tall task for the Rams, who will have to stop one of the most potent offensive attacks in recent college basketball history. Meanwhile, Illinois just has to be Illinois. — Medcalf
How VCU can advance to the Sweet 16: Phil Martelli Jr.’s squad can advance past Illinois if Terrence Hill Jr. plays the role of Superman again and his teammates employ the same resilience — on offense and defense — they demonstrated in the final 10 minutes of regulation on Thursday. The key is they’ll have to do it for 40 minutes against Illinois on Saturday. The Rams scored at a clip of 138 points per 100 possessions in the second half before they forced overtime against the Tar Heels. But the 19-point deficit the Rams had to overcome could turn into a 40-point disadvantage against an Illinois squad with the best offense in the country. They can’t let that happen. They’ll also need Lazar Djokovic (15 points, 2 blocks) to put up big numbers, too, as they attempt to stall the Illinois offensive machine. — Medcalf
8:45 p.m., TNT
How Nebraska can advance to the Sweet 16: Nebraska has already made history by winning the first NCAA tournament game in school history. Now it can add to that feat with another victory and its first Sweet 16 appearance. How? Its defense has the ability to force Vanderbilt star Tyler Tanner into difficult shots. He was just 2-for-6 against McNeese in the first half Thursday, struggling against its relentless pressure. Nebraska is bigger and better (top-10 defense nationally) than McNeese, and the Cornhuskers have put the same defensive clamps on elite teams in Big Ten play. Against everyone else, they’ve been ferocious. But they did hold Troy to just 47 points (77 points per 100 possessions) — the best defense we’ve seen in the opening round through the first half of Thursday. Combine that with Pryce Sandfort, Rienk Mast and Sam Hoiberg all hitting big shots in the first round, and Nebraska might be on its way to the Sweet 16 for the first time. — Medcalf
How Vanderbilt can advance to the Sweet 16: Vanderbilt needs Tyler Tanner to excel and to limit Nebraska’s shooters in order to advance. The Commodores were a different team in the second half against McNeese on Thursday when Tanner, a projected first-round NBA draft pick, got more comfortable against the pressure from one of America’s best defensive teams. He scored 17 of his game-high 26 points after halftime. Overall this season, Vanderbilt is 13-3 when the 6-foot guard scores at least 20 points. Nebraska, which had the best defense in Big Ten play this season, will do all it can to frustrate him. It’s not on him alone, though. The Commodores will have to do their best to shut down the Cornhuskers at the 3-point line: They’ve made 34 3-pointers in their past three games. — Medcalf
9:45 p.m., truTV/TBS
How Arkansas can advance to the Sweet 16: Arkansas wants to run, and it wants a high-scoring game. High Point will be willing to play into that hand, and it’s hard to see how that’s not a plus for John Calipari’s team. The Razorbacks don’t give the ball away since they have two high-level playmakers in Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas, and their frontcourt is significantly more mobile and athletic than Wisconsin’s bigs. The turnover battle will be key; High Point ranks in the top five in defensive turnover percentage, but Arkansas protects the ball better than any team in the country. If Acuff and Thomas take care of the ball and the Razorbacks can dominate the paint like they’ve done countless times this season, High Point likely won’t have an answer. Defensively, they can’t let Chase Johnston get hot — from anywhere on the floor. — Borzello
How High Point can advance to the Sweet 16: High Point has won 23 of its past 24 games and just beat Wisconsin while playing a run-and-gun up-tempo affair — don’t count the Panthers out against Arkansas. They won’t be afraid of the pace battle, although they’ll have to find a way to slow Darius Acuff Jr. and backcourt partner Meleek Thomas. Both are difficult to keep from getting to their spots, and High Point just allowed Nick Boyd and John Blackwell to combine for 49 points in the win over the Badgers. Where High Point could have some success is at the other end of the floor. Arkansas is solid defensively, but prone to off ball and rotation lapses, and High Point will look to get up and down the floor and take 3s. A repeat 15-for-40 3-point shooting effort would be nice, too. — Borzello
